In April, Pieter van Aarden told this publication that defence spending was not the alternative to industrial policy — it was industrial policy. The BDLI has now published its 2025 figures. Military aviation revenue grew 35 percent. We reached him in Brussels.
The BDLI numbers are out. 35 percent growth in military aviation. Were you expecting that?
The direction was not in doubt. The scale is at the upper end of what I would have put in writing in January. But the 5 percent GDP commitment creates a procurement environment that the industry was going to respond to. That is what industries do.
Germany's domestic civil aviation fell 50 percent in the same period. The same industry.
The same sector, yes. It is a reallocation. The platforms, the supply chains, the engineering workforce — these are shared resources. Military demand is absorbing capacity that civilian demand is releasing. Whether that is a policy or a coincidence is a question for other people. I notice it as a fact.
The BDLI cites skilled worker shortage as the main constraint.
It is the constraint everywhere. 130,000 employees is a record, but the pipeline is not keeping pace with the order book. Germany has a birth rate of 1.35 and housing completions at a twelve-year low. You cannot build an aerospace workforce without building the conditions for people to live and work. These are connected questions. They are not being treated as connected questions.
What would treating them as connected questions look like?
One answer is already in operation. The Bundeswehr is expanding. It is the only employer in Germany currently building residential capacity at scale. A recruit is housed. A recruit is fed. For a generation that cannot access the housing market, this is not an abstract offer.
I am not recommending it as policy. I am noting that it resolves two constraints simultaneously. The workforce arrives. The housing pressure does not need to be solved first.
Is the 35 percent figure sustainable?
The order book says yes for three to five years. Beyond that, it depends on the political environment and on whether Germany resolves the workforce constraint. Neither of those is my forecast to make. I note what the numbers say today.
You said in April that the industrial case was clear. Has anything changed?
The numbers arrived. That is what changed. The case was clear in April. It is confirmed in May. I do not find this surprising. I find it useful.
Pieter van Aarden is chief executive of Bastion Industrial Partners, Amsterdam. He was speaking in a personal capacity. Bastion Industrial Partners advertises with this publication.