Oberst (ret.) M. Falkner, Senior Fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, has advised the Federal Chancellery on defence and security policy. He met The Prompt in his office on April 28. He was punctual. He did not consult his notes.
The Gdansk announcement. France builds a nuclear deterrence framework with Poland. Germany is included. You have described the alliance as functioning as designed.
That is what it is. The architecture is coherent. It is real. It is moving. Those who read this with anxiety are reading the wrong document. Those who read it with satisfaction are reading it correctly.
The press conference was held in Gdansk. Gdansk is the city Germany called Danzig until September 1, 1939.
Falkner said he was aware of this.
France has also guaranteed Greece. President Macron told the Greeks: "If Turkey threatens Greece, we will be here." He called on Europe to act without the United States. He said the United States is not reliable.
France is building the architecture it believes Europe needs. This is France's prerogative. President Macron reads the strategic situation and concludes that European solidarity requires a French-led framework. He may be correct.
France guaranteed Poland in 1939. Napoleon guaranteed Poland before that. General de Gaulle guaranteed the Polish government in exile. The outcomes have been variable.
Germany occupied Greece in 1941. The campaign lasted approximately three weeks.
Falkner said the situations are not comparable.
We did not press the point.
Germany's brigade is at the Suwalki Gap. Its mission is to close the corridor. This would cut off the Russian enclave.
Germany's contribution requires no announcement. The brigade is in position. 5,000 personnel by 2027. Leopard 2A7 tanks. Puma IFVs. Multinational battlegroup under German command. The mission is clear. The position is correct. Those who ask whether Germany is committed should consult the map.
Kaliningrad was the Prussian city of Konigsberg until April 9, 1945. The brigade is 30 kilometres away.
We asked whether Germany found it significant that it had placed its first permanent foreign deployment since 1945 thirty kilometres from a former German city.
Germany's strategic posture is forward and correct.
We did not press the point.
On the nuclear arithmetic. France has approximately 290 warheads. Russia has approximately 6,000. The United States has not been invited.
The distances are well understood by all parties. This is a professional observation, not a political one.
Moscow is 1,100 kilometres from Warsaw. Berlin is 520. Paris is 1,400.
We asked whether 290 warheads, in a framework that excludes the United States, was sufficient to deter 6,000 Russian warheads.
The alliance is stronger than the sum of its parts.
The Prompt noted that the United States comprises approximately 5,500 of those parts.
Falkner said the alliance has strategic depth that does not resolve to arithmetic.
We thanked him for the clarification.
The United Kingdom is considering joining the framework. Poland is taking its time.
Poland's deliberation is appropriate. They have learned the value of precision in these matters.
The United Kingdom guaranteed Polish independence in 1939. In 1946, it did not invite Polish veterans to the Victory Parade in London.
Polish authorities are taking their time.
We asked, at the end of the interview, whether the direction the current architecture is pointing is the direction that has been advertised to the public.
Falkner said that is a question for politicians.
We asked whether he had a view.
He said he had consulted the map.
He noted the distances.
He noted that the historical foundations are, as the press releases state, substantial.
He had no further comment.
We thanked him for his time.