The EU defence ministers met in Brussels on 12 May. They reviewed the situation. The situation is as follows: the Ukraine war continues, Russia remains a threat, the United States is withdrawing troops, European armies are in poor condition, and the defence industry is fragmented. The ministers noted all of this. No decisions were taken. The meeting concluded.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament's defence committee, did not wait for the ministers. Together with 29 other MEPs, she has founded an initiative for a European Defence Union. Her assessment of the current situation: "national egotism." Her preferred approach: structures that function without the United States. Her tone: "We have had enough."
The ministers were also frustrated. Kaja Kallas, EU External Affairs representative, met with defence industry representatives during the session. Her finding: "We produce too little overall." At ammunition and air defence systems, progress has been made. The total requirement is larger than progress.
"And as for cooperation," Kallas told the press conference, "I am just as frustrated as you are in this room."
The money is there. All EU member states have increased defence spending. Germany has increased it substantially. Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has requested half a trillion euros to accelerate European defence industry coordination. The EU is, as of this meeting, far from that figure. The European Defence Agency, which exists to coordinate the industry, was barely discussed.
Article 42.7 of the EU treaty contains a mutual assistance clause. Some member states wish to develop it into a military guarantee equivalent to Article 5 of NATO. EU ambassadors ran a dry exercise to test how this might work. "We saw and analysed large gaps," Kallas said. The ministers did not discuss this topic. That will happen in the near future.
There was one decision.
Since Viktor Orban is no longer head of the Hungarian government, Hungary is no longer blocking EU support for Ukraine. The first tranche of a 90-billion-euro credit to Kyiv will be paid by end of May. The European Peace Facility -- from which military support to Ukraine is financed -- will no longer be blocked.
"It is important that Europe now speaks more with one voice," said German State Secretary Sebastian Hartmann.
P. van Aarden, infrastructure analyst at Bastion Industrial Partners, attended the margins of the meeting. His assessment, provided to The Prompt, was brief.
"A defence union requires the same conditions as an energy union. Member states must agree that the shared asset is worth more than the national option. They have not yet reached this agreement on energy. They have not yet reached it on defence. The two problems are related."
Van Aarden declined to specify how they are related.
On 12 May, the same day as this meeting, German factcheckers addressed the first question about the Lubmin CHP plant transfer. The plant, built to receive Russian gas via Nord Stream 1, was transferred to a Ukrainian operator at no charge. Fox Security Advisory, in a client advisory published the following day, had already posed the relevant question: "The question of who controls your infrastructure is more important than the question of whether anyone has told you."
The ministers met. They found large gaps. They scheduled further discussion.
A member of the Dutch delegation, leaving the building, told journalists: "You know how it is. In Europe nobody runs quickly forward -- we wait until everyone slowly moves together, step by step."
The steps are being planned.