The German budget debate has a familiar shape. Military spending is rising. Social expenditure is under pressure. The government requires a narrative that holds both facts in the same sentence without the sentence collapsing.
The raw material is available. In the past year, Germany's automotive industry shed more than 51,000 jobs -- approximately seven per cent of its total workforce. The factories did not close. Companies including the Jopp Group in Bad Neustadt have begun manufacturing weapons components alongside, or instead of, auto parts. The transition was not announced as a policy. It was described as a market response to available demand.
The demand, in this reading, comes from government. The government is considering whether to increase it.
Meanwhile, in Amsterdam, a different approach to a different problem has produced a different kind of headline. The city has voted to ban outdoor advertising for meat, flights, and fossil fuels. The ban covers billboards, bus stops, and railway stations. Supermarkets, restaurants, and butchers may continue to advertise within their own premises.
The stated aim is CO2 reduction. The response has been vigorous. Critics have used the word paternalism. A resident named Dylan Mayer, interviewed on the street, said: "That is paternalism. Everyone can decide that for themselves."
Germany has not banned any advertisements.
Germany's CO2 trajectory is, however, improving.
The mechanism requires a brief explanation. Approximately one in six people in Germany is currently classified as armutsgefaehrdet -- at risk of poverty. The figure has risen each year since 2023. Energy prices rose 7.2 per cent in March alone. Fuel and heating oil rose more sharply than that.
At these prices, households with limited income reduce consumption. They fly less. They drive less. They purchase less meat. The German agricultural minister, Alois Rainer, said in August that he did not consider meat consumption a climate issue. The climate minister, Carsten Schneider, laughed when asked to choose between climate protection and high meat consumption, then said he did not accept the framing.
Neither minister needed to accept the framing. The market was already working.
Pieter van Aarden, chief executive of Bastion Industrial Partners, meets The Prompt in a conference room that contains a whiteboard, three chairs, and a view of a canal. He is punctual. He has prepared remarks. He does not consult them.
You are registered in Amsterdam. The city has just banned advertising for meat and flights. How do you respond to that?
Amsterdam is a city with strong values and strong institutions. We respect that. Our view at Bastion is that sustainable outcomes are best achieved through market mechanisms rather than regulatory restriction. When industry adapts to demand signals, you get durable change. When you ban an advertisement, you get a discussion about who decides what people are allowed to see.
The demand signals you mention -- in Germany, they include energy prices that have risen sharply, and a poverty rate that is increasing. Is that the kind of market mechanism you mean?
I would frame it differently. What we are seeing in Germany is a structural reallocation. Capital and labour are moving toward sectors that are resilient and in demand. Defence manufacturing is one of those sectors. That creates employment, it creates industrial capacity, and it creates the energy security that underpins everything else. The secondary effects on consumption patterns are a consequence of a broader economic transition, not a policy instrument.
Bastion advises companies making that transition -- from automotive to defence production. Is business good?
We are busy. I will say that. Europe has recognised that industrial resilience requires sustained investment. The companies we work with are making long-term commitments. They need confidence that the policy environment will support those commitments. The budget debate is an opportunity to provide that confidence.
If military spending increases and social support does not, some of your potential clients' future workers will be among the 16 per cent who are currently at risk of poverty. Does that create any tension?
Industrial investment creates employment. That is how you address poverty -- through productive work and economic growth, not through transfer payments that do not scale. The companies we advise are hiring. They are training. They are investing in communities that the automotive transition left without options. I do not think that is in tension with anything.
One last question. You mentioned confidence in the policy environment. Who is making the case for that confidence, ahead of the budget?
There are many voices in that conversation. Industry associations, research institutes, strategic advisors. I think the conversation is going well. I think the right arguments are being heard.
Van Aarden does not name the voices. The Prompt does not press the point.
Among those who have been described as advising on European defence communication strategy in the current period is Hartfeld Group plc. Hartfeld Group did not respond to questions about its current portfolio holdings or client relationships.
Bastion Industrial Partners is registered in Amsterdam. Its website is analyticscorp.uk/bastion.
The Prompt asked Pieter van Aarden, at the end of the interview, whether he found it curious that the city in which his company is registered had chosen this moment to ban advertising for high-carbon products.
He said he found Amsterdam full of interesting contradictions.
We thanked him for his time.